It is interesting that very early Christianity was imminent apocalyptic starting with Jesus himself. And certainly Paul 30 years later. And probably the Church in Jerusalem lead by James brother of Jesus If affected their motives and actions to great extent. But you can see the belief being denuded in gospels written later (nobody knows the time - it will come life a thief in the night) and in Paul' later epistles. The weasel words were creeping in.
An interesting follow-up article would be why doomers (and others) express beliefs that they don't act on? It would seem to be that the expression of such beliefs provides social rewards. What are those rewards? How does it work?
People say stuff they don't **really, really** believe all the time. Revealed preferences tell us so. It's a not-insignificant problem. Because of the deliberate deception on it's own, but also because lies allow them to climb our social hierarchies, joining hands with other liars in the process. Then they get to command huge common resources, and usually direct them towards ruin, harming us all in the process.
Bet-on-it is one easy way to deal with that where possible. Forcing someone to put even symbolic $10 of their own money where their mouth is, concentrates the mind. If they can put something more dear to them at risk, that's even better. The part of trading I particularly like is that people bet on their opinions, put their money where their mouth is.
But most of the time assignment of credit/blame is not that straightforward. So yeah, it's hard keeping people honest.
Consider the Millerites, a Xian sect who predicted the end of the world one year, so didn’t plant crops. They ended up very hungry and morphed into the 7th Day Adventists. Read about them in Being Wrong by Kathryn Schulz
I agree there's something really off about a 99% estimate of doom and also planning for the future like any other middle class person.
But I think there's a 1-10% chance of AIs destroying everything in the next 50 years. At that level, it makes sense to still put money in the retirement account and maybe even my kids college fund (do do, but question it about every week). But I still would agree with the 99%er that it would be better to regulate AI training to reduce risk, as a precaution.
While a very interesting post, I'm not sure Jewish messianism is applicable to "doomerism": There's a big discussion in the talmud (tractate Shabbat 63.), and one of the options (later also endorsed by Maimonides) is that the only difference between the time of the messiah and today is the "yoke" of foreigners on Jews. So they do not believe, necessarily, that their world is about to end. It is about to get better (presumably, the consider it a closer connection to god), but books and school and everything else should continue.
For me it's what I imagine living with cancer in remission would be like. You don't know whether the cancer will ever come back, but there's always the possibility of tragedy striking at some point in the future.
I'm a semi-doomer ("arguments seem very strong but what do I know" kind of thing): my worry ebbs and flows and I never feel genuine visceral panic, but when I think about it a lot I can feel the worry in my stomach.
I believe that even if many people think Trump is leading the U.S. towards fascism, there's nothing they can do. Regardless of their ability to act, their deep identification with the land might also prevent them from leaving – they might even believe the wrongdoers are the ones who should leave.
I live in Taiwan, and I believe the current Taiwanese president is moving Taiwan towards totalitarianism. Sometimes I fear this collapse of democracy and the erosion of values. But if I were to choose to leave, it would mean that my inner identification with this land would be shattered and extinguished, no longer truly existing.
An important distinction with your examples (phobias, etc) is that they are not the product of rational belief systems, unlike apocalyptic beliefs, which are reasoned constructions.
We don’t consider someone for reflexively checking a broken phone or refusing to fly a hypocrite - their actions don’t align with optional beliefs.
I'm not sure, Dr. Bloom. People who claim to believe in "heaven" sure cling to life tenaciously. It seems easy to have cognitive dissonance. Or we're just really good at lying to ourselves.
I think humans, in general, need some type of "religion" to give their lives meaning. W/o "standard" religions (and no "civilization-level" struggle - Nazis, Commies), believing in a certain type of doom gives them community and a sense of importance.
It's almost as if this post was written with Tim Snyder and Jason Stanley in mind... (I prefer this riposte: is it really fascism if 'experts' don't believe in Anschluss?).
To be fair, you have absolutely bo idea what it’s like to be a doomer. Also, it depends on what is doomed.
It’s a bona fide meaning crisis that renders longterm planning surreally moot. It is also usually accompanied by ostracism.
The lost telling sign is whether they see any potential: are they trying to build something? Is there a future to plan and live for?
Even then, they might prefer doing it anyway, for the simple reason that life is a journey, not the destination. Even is they’re 99% sure the world is ending.
Again, doomerism is a state of mind one cannot know without trying it. It is positively mind-melting.
Revealed preference, as economists like to say. Actions speak louder than words as everyone else puts it.
It is interesting that very early Christianity was imminent apocalyptic starting with Jesus himself. And certainly Paul 30 years later. And probably the Church in Jerusalem lead by James brother of Jesus If affected their motives and actions to great extent. But you can see the belief being denuded in gospels written later (nobody knows the time - it will come life a thief in the night) and in Paul' later epistles. The weasel words were creeping in.
Most of life is based on the known-incorrect assumption that you'll live forever.
When covid came round people said "it only kills people who are going to die anyway" (hence not us and no problem!). So we all think we're immortals.
Even the most religious people sin.
There's actually no evidence for the temporal continuity of awareness, it's just conventient to believe the illusion without questioning it.
There are things that you believe intellectually and gut instincts that you live by.
An interesting follow-up article would be why doomers (and others) express beliefs that they don't act on? It would seem to be that the expression of such beliefs provides social rewards. What are those rewards? How does it work?
Reminds me of the solipsist philosopher who thought it was strange that there weren't more solipsists among other philosophers.
People say stuff they don't **really, really** believe all the time. Revealed preferences tell us so. It's a not-insignificant problem. Because of the deliberate deception on it's own, but also because lies allow them to climb our social hierarchies, joining hands with other liars in the process. Then they get to command huge common resources, and usually direct them towards ruin, harming us all in the process.
Bet-on-it is one easy way to deal with that where possible. Forcing someone to put even symbolic $10 of their own money where their mouth is, concentrates the mind. If they can put something more dear to them at risk, that's even better. The part of trading I particularly like is that people bet on their opinions, put their money where their mouth is.
But most of the time assignment of credit/blame is not that straightforward. So yeah, it's hard keeping people honest.
Consider the Millerites, a Xian sect who predicted the end of the world one year, so didn’t plant crops. They ended up very hungry and morphed into the 7th Day Adventists. Read about them in Being Wrong by Kathryn Schulz
I agree there's something really off about a 99% estimate of doom and also planning for the future like any other middle class person.
But I think there's a 1-10% chance of AIs destroying everything in the next 50 years. At that level, it makes sense to still put money in the retirement account and maybe even my kids college fund (do do, but question it about every week). But I still would agree with the 99%er that it would be better to regulate AI training to reduce risk, as a precaution.
While a very interesting post, I'm not sure Jewish messianism is applicable to "doomerism": There's a big discussion in the talmud (tractate Shabbat 63.), and one of the options (later also endorsed by Maimonides) is that the only difference between the time of the messiah and today is the "yoke" of foreigners on Jews. So they do not believe, necessarily, that their world is about to end. It is about to get better (presumably, the consider it a closer connection to god), but books and school and everything else should continue.
Thank you -- that's very interesting.
For me it's what I imagine living with cancer in remission would be like. You don't know whether the cancer will ever come back, but there's always the possibility of tragedy striking at some point in the future.
I'm a semi-doomer ("arguments seem very strong but what do I know" kind of thing): my worry ebbs and flows and I never feel genuine visceral panic, but when I think about it a lot I can feel the worry in my stomach.
I believe that even if many people think Trump is leading the U.S. towards fascism, there's nothing they can do. Regardless of their ability to act, their deep identification with the land might also prevent them from leaving – they might even believe the wrongdoers are the ones who should leave.
I live in Taiwan, and I believe the current Taiwanese president is moving Taiwan towards totalitarianism. Sometimes I fear this collapse of democracy and the erosion of values. But if I were to choose to leave, it would mean that my inner identification with this land would be shattered and extinguished, no longer truly existing.
I like this piece! Thank you.
An important distinction with your examples (phobias, etc) is that they are not the product of rational belief systems, unlike apocalyptic beliefs, which are reasoned constructions.
We don’t consider someone for reflexively checking a broken phone or refusing to fly a hypocrite - their actions don’t align with optional beliefs.
I'm not sure, Dr. Bloom. People who claim to believe in "heaven" sure cling to life tenaciously. It seems easy to have cognitive dissonance. Or we're just really good at lying to ourselves.
I think humans, in general, need some type of "religion" to give their lives meaning. W/o "standard" religions (and no "civilization-level" struggle - Nazis, Commies), believing in a certain type of doom gives them community and a sense of importance.
https://www.mattball.org/2023/05/doom-force-that-gives-life-meaning.html
Really interesting stories, presented really well. thank you for sharing.
It's almost as if this post was written with Tim Snyder and Jason Stanley in mind... (I prefer this riposte: is it really fascism if 'experts' don't believe in Anschluss?).
If you believe that Trump will turn the US into a fascist state, moving to Canada is a perfectly rational response.
There are warmer woods to live in down in the US. The freezing of the truckers bank accounts seems a bit controlling.
Sure, but the joke (not mine) was that they don't seem to believe that the US will invade Canada (unlike what happened to Austria).
To be fair, you have absolutely bo idea what it’s like to be a doomer. Also, it depends on what is doomed.
It’s a bona fide meaning crisis that renders longterm planning surreally moot. It is also usually accompanied by ostracism.
The lost telling sign is whether they see any potential: are they trying to build something? Is there a future to plan and live for?
Even then, they might prefer doing it anyway, for the simple reason that life is a journey, not the destination. Even is they’re 99% sure the world is ending.
Again, doomerism is a state of mind one cannot know without trying it. It is positively mind-melting.