...all due apologies to the civilisations that were wiped out by my writing this:
It's frustrating how often I discover my ideas have been plagiarised by famous thinkers.
You know, I independently invented Laplace's Demon when I was 16. Then I found out some French guy articulated it 200 years ago.
When my daughter was born, in 2019, I thought: "Well, this is the limit to how far I can go back in time. Any earlier and I'll be risking her perfect existence". Now you tell me Will McAskill is claiming the credit for that.
How does this jive with the idea of regression to the mean? I buy that seemingly small events can have downstream consequences but surely other small events will cancel out much of those consequences, and it becomes a wash. Can single small decisions really affect the future in such extreme ways? Maybe in isolation, but this assumes there's not much else going on. I'm not sure that killing one insect in 70 million BC would negate the pyramids. More likely it means that insect just evolves to have a slightly different shade of skin.
Not even that. It is extremely unlikely that any measurable effect survives for long. If it did then changing the momentum of one atom should also be able to have a large directional macro impact.
Hi Paul. Before substack existed (which could be gist for your reflections) a young Bulgarian/American, Maria Popova, wrote “Brain Pickings” which she changed to “The Marginalian”. I found her via my philosophy and linguistics major friend Liz and subscribe to her weekly literary philosophical musings. She writes of the miracle of our existence supported by ramblings of ancient great philosophers/ writers/scientists/artists from Aristotle to Walt Whitman to Stephen Hawking to Frieda Kahlo. Your writing reminds me of Maria’s perspective, the minuscule chance that we are alive on this spinning planet of rock. I enjoyed reading the impact you imply our choices make. Food for thought, at 18 I found myself pregnant. I was fiercely afraid of my religious parent’s reaction so called and scheduled an abortion, agreed upon with my boyfriend (my now husband of 48 years). It was 1975. Abortion was newly legal and available. My best friend from high school called 15 min. later saying I should keep the baby, the consequences would be too heavy if I had an abortion. I listened to her, our son and two more sons were subsequently born. After marrying (I was right my parents freaked out) we finished our college degrees, even pursuing advanced degrees; life was good. However, dreams were deferred; to this day I know I took the easy way out from pursuing my writing dream; I chose self pity as a young, harried mother consuming that dream. Teaching English instead was a conscious decision to pacify. So now I’m 67, still love writing and read myriad genres as much as I can. One different choice would have dramatically altered my and my husband’s life, but I get dizzy thinking about the possibilities or tragedies that may have occurred. Your writing, as you can see, inspires me to write. Thank you Paul. Your work is no small potatoes.
While interesting, the thinking described here is too simplistic. The systems you describe have countless inputs over time, most of whose effects get squashed by more salient inputs.
I was thinking along these same lines, but then I wondered why is it that sometimes small minor events seem to have significant outcomes? or... maybe we should have that discussion about determinism 🤔
Maybe. Or maybe one dead mouse is just noise. It doesn't follow that any minor event can have enormous consequences. It's possible that big events are over-determined. The butterfly effect is misunderstood. It wasn't coined to illustrate how small effects can have large consequences, but that highly dynamic systems can be so sensitive to initial conditions that we can't know if they had an effect nor track the changes. Hurricanes are caused by large interactions between water and air currents. One butterfly won't make a difference. Similarly, there are broad social/economic/political trends that bring about historical events regardless of the actions of individuals (or mice!). We usually say that WW1 was initiated by the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, but Europe had been on the brink for years. It’s impossible to say what would have happen otherwise, but there probably still would have been a war.
There's also something funny about the idea that you may not have come to exist because of some random sperm event (or sliding door or whatever.) It's true that you, specifically, would not be here, but someone else might be, here or on another blog making similar observations.
I've never been able to properly express what I feel is the misstep here, but it has something to do with the idea that you trying to compare existence to non-existence. But non-existence is not a property that you can or can't have - it's not a property at all. You didn't wonder about your existence before you were born, and you won't wonder about it after you are dead (unless: afterlife).
My dad received one piece of mail from one out-of-state university and decided to go there. Had he not, I wouldn’t have been born -- so I’ve always marveled at the serendipitous ways of the world, too.
Thinking about it all makes me a little more grateful and a little less irritable or tired at any given moment.. we made it here! How exciting ☀️
I love this idea and it's clearly true. Sometimes it's easy to slide into an almost reverse nihilism. The consequence of any action are truly impossible to know. You could be destroying the world in some sense.
The only practical reality is almost to ignore it. Just be the best parent or friend you know how to be. The results will vary.
Hopefully my clumsiness has done some good today. I'll imagine so.
The butterfly effect is obviously real, but do some major events “screen off” much of what came before?
Like yes, the other commuters changed what time I got home each evening, but then my wedding arrives, and that event is so significant that its effect (on what happens that night, say) is not altered by previous noise?
that's a good point, Victor. I'm not sure a wedding would do it, because tiny variations in your action going into it would influence your behavior in tiny ways throughout. But suppose I come home in the evening and there's a gas leak and my whole house explodes. That might do it.
I also wonder about sleep, though. Maybe whether I fall sleep at 11:03:11 versus 11:03:12 has no effect AT ALL on me when I wake up?
Still, even if there is this screening off in the evening, if I bump into you on the streetcar, there are all the people you will interact with differently up until the wedding/bomb/falling asleep.
We are just pawns on this infinite board but, are not there signs of what's the best option somehow? Often we are too clumsy to see obvious mistakes. Sometimes we don't listen to our inner self, we are acting against our hearts, too proud or stubborn to admit it. Is the secret to pay more attention to that signs?
...all due apologies to the civilisations that were wiped out by my writing this:
It's frustrating how often I discover my ideas have been plagiarised by famous thinkers.
You know, I independently invented Laplace's Demon when I was 16. Then I found out some French guy articulated it 200 years ago.
When my daughter was born, in 2019, I thought: "Well, this is the limit to how far I can go back in time. Any earlier and I'll be risking her perfect existence". Now you tell me Will McAskill is claiming the credit for that.
How does this jive with the idea of regression to the mean? I buy that seemingly small events can have downstream consequences but surely other small events will cancel out much of those consequences, and it becomes a wash. Can single small decisions really affect the future in such extreme ways? Maybe in isolation, but this assumes there's not much else going on. I'm not sure that killing one insect in 70 million BC would negate the pyramids. More likely it means that insect just evolves to have a slightly different shade of skin.
Not even that. It is extremely unlikely that any measurable effect survives for long. If it did then changing the momentum of one atom should also be able to have a large directional macro impact.
Hi Paul. Before substack existed (which could be gist for your reflections) a young Bulgarian/American, Maria Popova, wrote “Brain Pickings” which she changed to “The Marginalian”. I found her via my philosophy and linguistics major friend Liz and subscribe to her weekly literary philosophical musings. She writes of the miracle of our existence supported by ramblings of ancient great philosophers/ writers/scientists/artists from Aristotle to Walt Whitman to Stephen Hawking to Frieda Kahlo. Your writing reminds me of Maria’s perspective, the minuscule chance that we are alive on this spinning planet of rock. I enjoyed reading the impact you imply our choices make. Food for thought, at 18 I found myself pregnant. I was fiercely afraid of my religious parent’s reaction so called and scheduled an abortion, agreed upon with my boyfriend (my now husband of 48 years). It was 1975. Abortion was newly legal and available. My best friend from high school called 15 min. later saying I should keep the baby, the consequences would be too heavy if I had an abortion. I listened to her, our son and two more sons were subsequently born. After marrying (I was right my parents freaked out) we finished our college degrees, even pursuing advanced degrees; life was good. However, dreams were deferred; to this day I know I took the easy way out from pursuing my writing dream; I chose self pity as a young, harried mother consuming that dream. Teaching English instead was a conscious decision to pacify. So now I’m 67, still love writing and read myriad genres as much as I can. One different choice would have dramatically altered my and my husband’s life, but I get dizzy thinking about the possibilities or tragedies that may have occurred. Your writing, as you can see, inspires me to write. Thank you Paul. Your work is no small potatoes.
Thanks for the wonderful comment. I’m a big fan of Maria!
*reroll dice*
While interesting, the thinking described here is too simplistic. The systems you describe have countless inputs over time, most of whose effects get squashed by more salient inputs.
Let’s not even mention determinism...
I was thinking along these same lines, but then I wondered why is it that sometimes small minor events seem to have significant outcomes? or... maybe we should have that discussion about determinism 🤔
Maybe. Or maybe one dead mouse is just noise. It doesn't follow that any minor event can have enormous consequences. It's possible that big events are over-determined. The butterfly effect is misunderstood. It wasn't coined to illustrate how small effects can have large consequences, but that highly dynamic systems can be so sensitive to initial conditions that we can't know if they had an effect nor track the changes. Hurricanes are caused by large interactions between water and air currents. One butterfly won't make a difference. Similarly, there are broad social/economic/political trends that bring about historical events regardless of the actions of individuals (or mice!). We usually say that WW1 was initiated by the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, but Europe had been on the brink for years. It’s impossible to say what would have happen otherwise, but there probably still would have been a war.
There's also something funny about the idea that you may not have come to exist because of some random sperm event (or sliding door or whatever.) It's true that you, specifically, would not be here, but someone else might be, here or on another blog making similar observations.
I've never been able to properly express what I feel is the misstep here, but it has something to do with the idea that you trying to compare existence to non-existence. But non-existence is not a property that you can or can't have - it's not a property at all. You didn't wonder about your existence before you were born, and you won't wonder about it after you are dead (unless: afterlife).
Maybe
My dad received one piece of mail from one out-of-state university and decided to go there. Had he not, I wouldn’t have been born -- so I’ve always marveled at the serendipitous ways of the world, too.
Thinking about it all makes me a little more grateful and a little less irritable or tired at any given moment.. we made it here! How exciting ☀️
I love this idea and it's clearly true. Sometimes it's easy to slide into an almost reverse nihilism. The consequence of any action are truly impossible to know. You could be destroying the world in some sense.
The only practical reality is almost to ignore it. Just be the best parent or friend you know how to be. The results will vary.
Hopefully my clumsiness has done some good today. I'll imagine so.
The butterfly effect is obviously real, but do some major events “screen off” much of what came before?
Like yes, the other commuters changed what time I got home each evening, but then my wedding arrives, and that event is so significant that its effect (on what happens that night, say) is not altered by previous noise?
that's a good point, Victor. I'm not sure a wedding would do it, because tiny variations in your action going into it would influence your behavior in tiny ways throughout. But suppose I come home in the evening and there's a gas leak and my whole house explodes. That might do it.
I also wonder about sleep, though. Maybe whether I fall sleep at 11:03:11 versus 11:03:12 has no effect AT ALL on me when I wake up?
Still, even if there is this screening off in the evening, if I bump into you on the streetcar, there are all the people you will interact with differently up until the wedding/bomb/falling asleep.
Free yourself from clumsy gods then by planning an explosion.
Thanks, all of that makes sense!
Thank God for entropy. Otherwise our lives would become unbearable under the weight of all the regrets about paths taken or not taken.
How can I acquire some of this entropy you speak of? I'd like to shed some of this unbearable weight...
So glad you are familiar with Maria. Looking forward to more Small Potatoes musings.
So glad you are familiar with Maria. Looking forward to further Paul Bloom musings.
Philip Seymour Hoffman’s nice (2min) rendition of a version of the farmer story, from Charlie Wilson’s War: https://youtu.be/B2L1-TgfKb4?si=eYweKgncpy9wrgLJ
We are just pawns on this infinite board but, are not there signs of what's the best option somehow? Often we are too clumsy to see obvious mistakes. Sometimes we don't listen to our inner self, we are acting against our hearts, too proud or stubborn to admit it. Is the secret to pay more attention to that signs?
If you’re reading this Paul don’t spill on the ice. I like you very much… damn it! ;)
Great piece. Seems like a kind of argument for virtue-ethics. I like it.